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May 5, 2017

10-win odds

Welcome, everybody, to another Fast Friday! As you can see, the Carriker family is still on the move, ergo so is the Carriker Chronicles. After my interview with Jordan Westerkamp this past Wednesday where he strongly and confidently predicted that the Huskers would win ten games this year. I had several Husker fans hit me up, "Hey, Adam, what do you think? What are the odds of Nebraska winning ten games this upcoming season?" About a month ago I broke down Nebraska's schedule, but today is about what are the odds of the Huskers winning ten games this year?

For the sake of this argument, don't send me hate mail because anything can happen in these games! I'm just going to predict that we lose at Penn State and to Ohio State. Taking that into consideration and assuming that we win every game that we should, every game that we're favored to win like we did a season ago, there should be four, five, or possibly six swing games that dictate whether we get to ten wins or not.

You've got at Oregon early in the year, a team that was bad a year ago, but it's going to be on the road and they are still Oregon. You've got Wisconsin, who I'll delve into in just a minute. You've got at Minnesota, a team that we should beat, but again on the road and a team that always plays us tough. Iowa, this is a revenge game! This is a game at home; if we don't win this game, we've got bigger issues, period. You've got a bowl game and possible Big Ten Championship game as well.

The Badgers are the heavy favorite to win the West Division this upcoming season. They have more returning starters than anyone in the West, and they're tied for the most amount of returning starters in the entire conference with returning champion, Penn State. I'm going to stick with my pick, though, that I made a month ago of us beating Wisconsin. Why would I do that? First of all, we've played them down to the wire two straight seasons, at some point the ball is going to bounce our way, we get them at home, we are due! Also, I think Tanner Lee is going to be a difference-maker for us at quarterback. We have a lot of depth and talent at the running back position, we have some guys who can make plays at the wide receiver position, we're building depth, we have tight ends who can catch the ball. The offensive line is going to be better and the defense, under Bob Diaco, like it was much of spring ball -- they weren't allowed to blitz in the spring game. Under Bob Diaco, the Blackshirts will be better this season.

In my opinion, everything hinges on this Wisconsin game. Number one, it's going to tell us how good we are. Number two, it could be a pseudo Big Ten Championship game. If we get this victory, we probably have the inside track to play in Indianapolis in the Big Ten title game and another game. I'm going to say we beat them boys from the Cheese State and we finally get that "W" over the Badgers.

Of the four, five, or six games that I've mentioned that are going to be swing games, in order to win ten games, we only have to win 66% of them. Not 75, not 80%. I'm going to say the odds are 60-40 that we get to ten wins this year. I'm not going off the deep end and with 75, 80 or 90%, it's better than 50-50.

So that's my prediction. I want to hear your thoughts! Hit me up in the comments below! What are the odds the Huskers get to ten wins this year? Be sure to tune in on Monday! I'm going to have some special guests I know you'll enjoy! Until then, Go Big Red and always remember to Throw the Bones!